In 1979, the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi left Iran in the midst of an unfolding revolution. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has left Iran to visit Russia to attend a summit. The question is whether Ahmadinejad faces a fate similar to the shah. First the good news: Iran's Guardian Council has agreed to recount the votes in the presidential election. The bad news: It won't annul the election. Iran's authorities continue to ban opposition rallies and foreign media are forbidden to leave their offices to do reporting.
But the real lesson of the unfolding drama is how the communications arms race between protesters and governments is heating up. The Iranians seemed to have learned the lessons of Moldova's Twitter Revolution, and the Obama campaign's use of Internet organizing. So did the Iranian government when it blocked Web sites and text messaging. It seems that the U.S. State Department is playing a quiet role in this by helping to keep the social networks up for the Iranians. Twitter was asked to delay scheduled maintenance so that Iranians can get around their government's blockout. Cyberstrikes against the Iranian government have also been called for by pro-Democracy supporters.
What remains to be seen is whether the proposed recount will matter, whether the protests will continue and what kind of Iran Ahmadinejad will return to.
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