Georgia burning

In a four-day shooting war that was meant to bring a breakaway province back under government control, Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia is now a ruin. The citizens of the region voted for independence by a 99 percent margin in November 2006. The casualty numbers in the short war between Russia and Georgia are in dispute, but, as always, it is the civilians who are getting the worst of it. The Russian advance was expected on three fronts, following the landing of troops by the Black Sea fleet. Alarmed, Team Bush and Team Sarko are as busy trying to negotiate a ceasefire as the Georgians are trying to withdraw in order to get Russia to accept one. There's a dispute over whether Georgia has withdrawn from the area: Georgia says it has, Russia says it hasn't. Worse, the two countries dispute the boundaries of the region under fire which means that Russia's 58th Army could end up sitting on what is traditionally regarded as Georgian real estate. The Russians also are being accused of opening up another front in the Abkhazia region to the west of Georgia. That has left Ukraine saying it may not let Russian ships return to their base in the Crimea.

The region remains a simmering hotbed for lingering Cold War rivalries. It provides Russia with strategic access to the Iranian / Turkish region and strategic oil and gas supply routes run through the area. And while the U.N. Security Council dithers, it's likely that the real winner in this will ultimately be Russia and the losers will be Georgia, Ukraine and their hopes for either EU or NATO membership.